willyc Wrote:Don, With regard to your question on stats regarding offs in the wet or dry, you could possibly find these in the annual newsletter produced by Doc Stevens for M.O.M.M.O.P.

At the risk of flogging a very old and very dead horse I raised a similar question when the infamous TT Course Licence was introduced after the shocking 2005 season. The licence supposedly addressed some 'experience' requirement as an answer to the fatalities of the year, trouble is if you look at the circumstances of the events only one (if that) could be attributed to lack of ability - and even that rider had qualified for the race on speed and number of laps.

For a realistic analysis of the dangers of the course every 'off' needs to be taken into account, since the effects of a spill are so uncontrollable - any could be a 'fatal'. Then you need to identify the primary causes of the incident and only when you have enough evidence gathered to know what they are, you can address them. Knee-jerk reactions or introducing measures that "seem like a good idea" without being based on hard facts are invariably no more than expensive, bureaucratic and most importantly ineffective gestures. When the course licence was introduced in just such a way the ACU were unwilling (or more likely unable) to provide any basis for their decision.

In the same way we should be a bit wary of judging wet races as inherently more dangerous than dry ones. They may even prove to be safer as riders instinctively allow larger margins of safety. Any crashes that do happen may happen at lower speeds with less severe consequences.

Flawed analysis makes for bad decisions.